Multi-Label Learning for Appliance Recognition in NILM Using Fryze-Current Decomposition and Convolutional Neural Network

sustainable energy
buildings
nilm state prediction
nilm
disaggregation
machine learning

Anthony Faustine, and Pereira, Lucas, “Multi-Label Learning for Appliance Recognition in NILM Using Fryze-Current Decomposition and Convolutional Neural Network,” Energies 2020, 13, 4154., doi: 10.1109/TSG.2022.3148699

Authors
Affiliations

Anthony Faustine

Ireland’s National Centre for Applied Data Analytics (CeADER), University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland

ITI, LARSyS, Técnico Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal

Published

August 2020

Doi

Abstract

The increased penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) as part of a decentralized and distributed power system makes net-load forecasting a critical component in the planning and operation of power systems. However, compared to the transmission level, producing accurate short-term net-load forecasts at the distribution level is complex due to the small number of consumers. Moreover, owing to the stochastic nature of RES, it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty of the forecasted net-load at any given time, which is critical for the real-world decision process. This work presents parameterized deep quantile regression for short-term probabilistic net-load forecasting at the distribution level. To be precise, we use a Deep Neural Network (DNN) to learn both the quantile fractions and quantile values of the quantile function. Furthermore, we propose a scoring metric that reflects the trade-off between predictive uncertainty performance and forecast accuracy. We evaluate the proposed techniques on historical real-world data from a low-voltage distribution substation and further assess its robustness when applied in real-time. The experiment’s outcomes show that the resulting forecasts from our approach are well-calibrated and provide a desirable trade-off between forecasting accuracies and predictive uncertainty performance that are very robust even when applied in real-time.

Important figures

Figure 2a: Predicted effects of imposing specific emergency public health measures over first 15 months of the COVID pandemic, split by whether states formally derogated from the ICCPR

Figure 3a: Predicted effects of imposing specific emergency public health measures over first 15 months of the COVID pandemic, split by whether states formally derogated from the ICCPR

Citation

 Add to Zotero

@ARTICLE{9701598,
  author={Faustine, Anthony and Pereira, Lucas},
  journal={IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid}, 
  title={FPSeq2Q: Fully Parameterized Sequence to Quantile Regression for Net-Load Forecasting With Uncertainty Estimates}, 
  year={2022},
  volume={13},
  number={3},
  pages={2440-2451},
  keywords={Forecasting;Uncertainty;Predictive models;Probabilistic logic;Renewable energy sources;Load modeling;Additives;Net-load;forecasting;uncertainity;deep neural network;quantile regression},
  doi={10.1109/TSG.2022.3148699}}